Brazil betting ban likely to lapse without licence restoration, Regulus says

Regulus forecasts ban lapse without licence renewal

Regulus Partners now puts an 80% chance on a scenario where the measure banning online betting lapses, but operators’ licences, which expired on the day of the vote, are not restored, the advisory firm said.

Provisional Measure (PM) No. 1,394/2026 banned fixed-odds betting and online casino games from 25 September, and licensed sites went offline on 6 October. According to Regulus, the measure has drawn more than 90 active amendments and still needs a simple majority in both chambers to become law by early March 2027.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election on 25 October with 51.8% of the vote in the run-off, securing a fourth term.

Operator impact

Flutter expects about $70 million less revenue and $20 million less adjusted EBITDA in 2026 if it cannot operate in Brazil for the rest of the year. Flutter Brazil carried $539 million of goodwill at Q2 2026. In 2025, Flutter acquired a 56% stake in NSX, bringing Betnacional together with its existing Betfair Brazil business in a deal involving $674 million in total consideration.

Entain’s Brazil operations were expected to make up about 5% of 2026 online NGR, and underlying EBITDA is expected at the lower end of £910 million to £960 million.

Allwyn owns 36.75% of Kaizen Gaming, which operates Betano, and Brazil is Betano’s largest market. Betano is preparing legal action over its five-year licence. Evolution has about 9% of sales from Brazil, according to a JPMorgan estimate reported by Reuters.

State licensing and illegal activity

Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná, and Paraíba have already used their state lottery structures to issue online betting licences. Regulus estimates Brazil’s gambling sector at more than $25 billion.

ANJL President Plínio Lemos Jorge warned about the risks posed by illegal betting websites, citing more than 30,000 active unauthorized sites in Brazil. Bet Legal detected an increase in unauthorized betting domains from 381 on Sept. 25 to a peak of 1,071 on Sept. 29, an increase of approximately 181%.

Offshore operators accounted for 11.3% of Brazilian gambling-related search demand on Sept. 30, up from 3.4% on Sept. 24, according to Blask’s figures. By Sept. 29, Brazilian authorities had requested the removal of 5,209 gambling-related domains, with telecommunications regulator Anatel ordering 2,387 blocked.

H2 Gambling Capital estimates that R$25 billion ($4.8 billion) in annualized spending could move offshore if the ban remains in place.