Robinhood prediction market revenue to reach $1.7bn by 2028, Bernstein forecasts

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani has forecast that Robinhood’s prediction market revenue will reach $1.7 billion in 2028, according to his latest research note. The figure would slightly exceed the $1.6 billion Chhugani expects the company will generate from cryptocurrency trading in the same year.

Revenue projections and estimate revisions

Chhugani estimates that event contracts will drive $650 million in revenue for Robinhood in 2024. The analyst has boosted top-line estimates for the company by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028.

In the second quarter, Robinhood’s prediction market revenue topped its cryptocurrency business on a quarterly basis for the first time. A Robinhood executive recently noted that many traders whose initial interaction with the company is through yes/no derivatives stick around and engage in options and futures trading.

Robinhood delivers third-quarter results after the close of U.S. markets on Tuesday, Oct. 27.

Coinbase projections

Chhugani also forecasts $2 billion of event contracts and derivatives products revenue for Coinbase in 2028, more than triple the $600 million expected in 2024. Coinbase offers event contracts through a partnership with one of the largest prediction market operators.