Kalshi bitcoin perpetual futures show 52% fixed-size trades over two months

Fixed-size trades dominate volume

Fixed-size trades made up around half of Kalshi’s bitcoin perpetual futures volume over August and September, according to analysis of the exchange’s public trade data. “Over those two months, $10.17 billion of the bitcoin perp’s $19.68 billion in notional value, or 52%, traded at a handful of fixed sizes,” the analysis found.

The analysis also revealed that three times in August and September, the fixed trade sizes in Kalshi’s bitcoin and ether perpetual futures contracts changed within 10 minutes of each other. “At 11:07 p.m. ET on Aug. 23, the trade size that dominated Kalshi’s ether perp changed. In the same minute, the trade sizes dominating its bitcoin perp also changed,” according to the findings.

From Oct. 1 to Oct. 18, trades within $50 of $4,025 made up 63% of the ether perp’s notional value, the analysis showed.

Academic views on synchronized changes

Andre Guettler, a finance professor at Ulm University, said the synchronized changes point to market makers’ automated systems. “Market makers seem to apply similar bots to increase liquidity and artificial volume,” he said. “The same moment moves further support a critical conclusion that volume is being artificially upward biased.”

Professor Rajiv Sethi, a Barnard College economist, told Gambling Insider after seeing its ether analysis that he was “starting to have doubts about my tolerated sniping explanation.”

Kalshi response and incentive programs

Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi’s head of communications, said the company does not comment on individual trader activity. “Kalshi knows the participants behind every trade. But we do not comment on individual trader activity,” Diana said in an Oct. 20 email.

Kalshi confirmed to Gambling Insider that its volume incentive program, which would have paid traders according to how much they traded, was not live. However, three other perps incentive programs are live, and Kalshi has posted no public notice that any of them started, though its filings say each takes effect “upon exchange notice.”

The live programs include the Temporary Perpetual Fee Rebate Program filed June 24, Kalshi Klear’s Perpetual Interest Program filed Aug. 14 which pays “the equivalent of 7% APY” on eligible positions up to $7 million in total, and the Designated Liquidity Provider Market Making Program.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates Kalshi, did not respond to a request for comment.