Election Day 2026: prediction markets and polls forecast Democratic gains

On Election Day, Nov. 3, 2026, polling models projected a 93% chance of the Democratic Party winning the House of Representatives and a 74% chance of securing a Senate majority. Prediction markets reflected a near-identical consensus, with contracts giving Democrats a 93% chance in the House and a 73% chance in the Senate.

Key races

Pollsters and prediction markets said there are eight key races that will weigh heavily on determining the Senate’s balance of power. As of midday trading on Election Day, Nov. 3, five of those races—Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas—lean Democratic. Only two lean Republican—Nebraska and South Carolina—while Iowa remains a toss-up.

Prediction markets favor Democrats securing 53 or more Senate seats, with Republicans expected to fill 47 seats. In the House, prediction markets suggest Republicans will hold fewer than 185 seats, down from 219 currently. Democrats are expected to win 237 seats. Prediction markets define a “blue wave” as Democrats winning 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats.

Pollsters say the “generic congressional ballot,” which only asks voters which party they’re supporting without naming candidates, is +8.8 in the Democrats’ favor. Pew Research Center says Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans.

Gaming on the ballot

Two states are asking voters about gaming. In Nebraska, two statewide ballot referendums seek to amend the Nebraska Constitution to permit online sports betting. A simple majority is needed for Initiative Measures 440 and 441 to legalize online sportsbooks. In Indiana, county voters in Allen, DeKalb, and Steuben are deciding whether they support allowing a casino. If any county secures a simple majority, the county could field bids and present a proposal to the Indiana Gaming Commission for licensure. Indiana House Bill 1038 allows the Indiana Gaming Commission to issue one gaming license to one of the three counties where voters support slot machines and table games.