Flutter cuts 2026 guidance again as FanDuel EBITDA falls 94% to $3m

Flutter Entertainment cut its full-year profit guidance for the third consecutive quarter as its U.S. arm, FanDuel, earned just $3 million in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter and the group shelved buybacks to pay down debt. Group revenue rose 2% to $3.874 billion, short of the $4.02 billion Wall Street consensus compiled by MarketBeat. Adjusted EBITDA fell 25% to $360 million, and the margin narrowed 330 basis points to 9.3%. On a GAAP basis, the net loss widened 46% to $1.148 billion, or $4.90 per share, driven mainly by an $873 million non-cash impairment of its Brazilian business.

FanDuel and U.S. results

U.S. revenue was $1,455 million, up 6%, and U.S. handle was $12,023 million, up 13%, while U.S. adjusted EBITDA fell 94% to $3 million from $51 million a year earlier. Promotional spend rose 60 basis points to 6.0% of handle, and U.S. adjusted EBITDA fell to $3 million from $119 million in the second quarter. FanDuel’s sportsbook gross gaming revenue share fell to 36% from 39% in the second quarter. Chief Executive Dan Taylor told analysts that the higher promotional spend announced in August was “beginning to pay off, delivering market share gains in August and September.” Customer-friendly sports results cost the U.S. business about $38 million in revenue.

Guidance and International

Flutter cut the midpoint of 2026 group adjusted EBITDA guidance by $160 million to $2.495 billion, and revenue by $300 million to $17.61 billion. Combined with the August downgrade, the profit midpoint has fallen $370 million, or 13%, from $2.865 billion. Brazil closed on Sept. 26 after a provisional measure banned fixed-odds betting and online gaming. The UK remote gaming duty increase to 40% from 21% drove the third-quarter International margin decline of 280 basis points to 18.0%. Flutter has announced about 1,400 departures from its UK and Ireland business in response. U.S. EBITDA guidance fell $45 million to $715 million, and leverage rose to 4.6x from 4.3x at June 30. CFO Rob Coldrake said promotional spend is expected to remain at similar levels in Q4 and throughout 2027.

Prediction markets

Flutter expects an adjusted EBITDA loss on prediction markets of about $200 million in 2026. FanDuel Predicts had 66,000 average monthly players and $119 million of volume, up 102% quarter over quarter. Taylor said Flutter sees a limited impact from prediction markets on existing customers but is beginning to see an impact on overall media costs.